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Some of the material in is restricted to members of the community. By logging in, you may be able to gain additional access to certain collections or items. If you have questions about access or logging in, please use the form on the Contact Page.
The purpose of this study is to test a perfect prognosis scheme used to develop lightning guidance for the warm season (May-September) for three regions of the country (Colorado, Washington, D.C., and Oregon). This guidance product is...
Integrated kinetic energy (IKE) is a recently developed metric that approximates the destructive potential of a tropical cyclone by assessing the size and strength of its wind field. Despite the potential usefulness of the IKE metric, ...
An atmospheric model is coupled to a sea surface temperature algorithm that calculates the diurnal variability in order to understand the responses to near surface winds and boundary layer temperature, pressure, and moisture in the north...
The advancement of numerical weather prediction (NWP) has hastened the effort to understand how moist processes -- many of which are parameterized in NWP models -- influence cyclone structure and intensity. Despite this effort, there...
Rossby waves are waves in potential vorticity that propagate along the extratropical tropopause and can be impacted by the advection of low-PV air originating from the subtropics. In this study, the subtropical precipitation influence on...
In this study, we have diagnosed diabatic heating, meridional adiabatic mass and angular momentum transport, and downward transfer of westerly angular momentum by the pressure torque in isentropic coordinates using daily NCEP-NCAR...
The scopes of this thesis research are two folds: the first one is to the construct the intensity-based composite radial-vertical profiles of tropical cyclones (TC) using GPS-based dropsonde observations and the second one is to identify...
Climate feedback mechanisms are known to substantially affect the surface temperature response to an external forcing. This study aims to advance our physical and quantitative understanding of forcing and feedback contributions to the...
The Sahel and Guinea Coast regions of Africa have long been the subject of studies on interannual and intraseasonal rainfall variability. The unique geography, monsoon circulation regime, and a variety of climatic teleconnections produce...
Warm seclusions are large midlatitude storms that have the potential to substantially influence the turbulent heat fluxes and global energy budget. These storms have not been previously investigated from an energy and flux perspective....
The background state of the Arctic atmosphere under prolonged warming is analyzed by evaluating blended CFSR-CFSv2 reanalysis data from an isentropic lens, where potential temperature is used as the vertical coordinate and the principle...
Hurricane Harvey (2017) spawned from a westward propagating tropical wave in the Atlantic and then tracked across the southern Caribbean Sea, the Yucatán Peninsula, and lastly over the Gulf of Mexico, where it quickly intensified into a...
A hypothesis by Maul [1977], stating the rate of change of Loop Current (LC) volume is related to deep Yucatan Channel (YC) transport, is examined and validated with a continuous 54-year simulation of the regional 1/25˚ Gulf of Mexico ...
Initializing Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) for routine seasonal ENSO prediction is currently an onerous task. This is one of the main reasons on why the CGCMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 ...
In order to study the impact of climate change on the Earth's hydrologic cycle, global information about snowfall is needed. To achieve global measurements of snowfall over both land and ocean, satellites are necessary. While satellites...
While a number of research groups offer quantitative diagnostic indices of aggregate annual Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone (TC) activity, the literature is comparatively thin concerning methods to similarly quantify seasonal U.S....
A major theme of recent research is the investigation of the nature of climate variability and the current capability to measure, model, and predict it. This is a formidable task that involves understanding complex interactions and...
Atmospheric conditions during the dry season of the South American monsoon are instrumental in the initiation of convection during the wet season and are strongly correlated to SSTs within the Atlantic Warm Pool. Subsequently, accurate...
Baroclinic, geostrophic turbulence is random, chaotic flow characterized by significant vertical gradients in density (Bu << 1) in which rotation plays a major role (Ro << 1). In the presence of a large-scale background gradient of...
While tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasting has improved noticeably over the last twenty years, intensity forecasting has remained somewhat of an enigma to forecasters. Despite increased computing capabilities and more sophisticated...
Equatorial waves have been studied extensively due to their importance to the tropical climate and weather systems. Historically, their activity is diagnosed mainly in the wavenumber-frequency domain. Recently, many studies have...
In this study, a modified multi-dimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition (MEEMD) is devised and employed to understand the temporal-spatial evolution of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) of interannual timescales. We...
The effects of two different future warming climate scenarios on Global and North Atlantic named tropical cyclone (NTC) activity is examined using the Florida State University/Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (FSU/COAPS)...
This study computes statistical forecasts of monthly and three-monthly rainfall for seven regions of Florida defined by the National Climatic Data Center. First, time-lagged auto- and cross-correlations are computed involving monthly...
Prior studies of the long-term temperature record in the Southeastern United States (SE US) mostly discuss the long-term cooling trend, and the inter-annual variability produced by the region's strong ties to El Niño Southern Oscillation...
Since 1980, a new type of ENSO, i.e., central Pacific (CP) ENSO, where sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) are mainly located in the equatorial central Pacific, has been frequently observed. Several studies have documented and...
Buoys are a common source of validation data for remote sensing over the open ocean and are one of only a small number of in situ sources in this data sparse region. Previous studies have shown the presence of a low wind speed bias for...
A given location’s annual cycle of surface temperature is often used as a reference framework for climate anomalies through which the seasonal and interannual variability of the Earth’s climate system can be quantified. Since local...
Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (KSC/CCAFS) experience thunderstorms on an almost daily basis during the warm season (May through September). Most thunderstorms occur in the afternoon and are accurately forecast...
Here we present a new method of identifying wave activity in the tropical stratosphere. NCEP reanalysis II data from January 1, 1979, to December 31, 2010, was used to diagnose properties of vertically-propagating equatorial waves, ...
This study evaluates the characteristics and forecast accuracy of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) Index on an intraseasonal time scale. The Arctic Oscillation is a natural pattern of time varying sea-level pressure anomalies that is one of...
The advent of ensembles permits forecasters to have an implied level of confidence based upon the level of (dis)agreement among those ensembles. However, there are occasionally situations where the ensemble members may agree but be in...
The low-frequency signals (LFS) of climate variables such as temperature and pressure often contain variability as a result of the nonlinear and non-stationary nature of Earth's climate system. Occasionally, as in the case of the North...
The ridge systems that frame the Lau Basin and Havre Trough, located east of Fiji and north of New Zealand, separating a large counterclockwise gyre at the surface into two smaller gyres at depth. A strong deep western boundary current ...
The U.S. Air Force's 45th Weather Squadron (45WS) seeks improved forecasts of lightning cessation at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) in Florida. The 45WS currently keeps lightning advisories...
This research focuses on the transport of chemical species to the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS) by tropical cyclones (TCs). Species such as carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and ozone have been found to exert a greater...
Offshore resource assessment relies on estimating wind speeds at turbine hub height using observations typically made at substantially lower height. The methods used to adjust from observed wind speeds to hub height can impact resource...
Heat fluxes at the air-sea interface are an important component of the Earth's heat budget. In addition, they are an integral factor in determining the sea surface temperature (SST) evolution of the oceans. Different representations of...
This study aims to unravel the driving factors of rainfall variability on interannual time-scales and for extreme events over western equatorial Africa (WEA). We first defined homogeneous and contiguous regions with respect to...
Extratropical cyclones are responsible for the generation of large amounts of latent andsensible heat fluxes over the ocean. These fluxes are the main mechanism by which the ocean influences the atmosphere. Extratropical cyclones that...
New England (NE) Tropical Cyclones (TCs) can produce significant damage, as well as provide increased forecast track and intensity complexity for forecasters. This is the result of the fact that these TCs recurve, often undergo...
Interactions of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) with upper tropospheric flow are identified in 37 years of ERA-Interim reanalysis data and analyzed from multiple perspectives. Upper tropospheric troughs are identified in a more...
How much warmer is the ocean surface than the atmosphere directly above it? Part 1 of the present study offers a means to quantify this temperature difference using a nonlinear one-dimensional global energy balance coupled ocean...
Mexico and Central America (Mesoamerica) are situated in a complex and unique geographical position with the Caribbean Sea to the East and the tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean to the West. The weather patterns of this region are driven by...
The annual cycle is a large scale climate process which influences smaller scale climate and meteorological processes. In this research, the annual cycle is defined by the climates response to Earth's orbit about the sun. In this...
This study provides, to our knowledge, the first detailed analysis of how oil changes air-sea interaction in a two-way coupled model (COAWST), and how the modified surface stress and surface Ekman current change the transport of the oil....
Numerical weather prediction and ensemble forecasting have improved the skill of medium range forecasts. However, multi-model ensembles can be computationally expensive and difficult to interpret so post-processing techniques are often...
Some of the material in is restricted to members of the community. By logging in, you may be able to gain additional access to certain collections or items. If you have questions about access or logging in, please use the form on the Contact Page.
