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Forecasting in international relations is becoming increasingly common, accurate, and relevant for decision support to policymakers. One of the major subjects of forecast- ing has been inter- and intrastate war, through various observable outcomes like onset, duration, and casualties. The three projects in this dissertation focus on the latter, i.e. the human cost of war. The projects respectively: (1) develop a model to predict battle- deaths in interstate wars and assess out-of-sample forecast accuracy, (2) use a Bayesian spatial count model to examine the relationship between front lines and civilian deaths during the Bosnian civil war, and (3) develop Bayesian time-series count models for long-range forecasting of deaths in civil conflicts using Iraq Body Count project data on civilian deaths during the Iraq War.
A Dissertation submitted to the Department of Political Science in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy.
Includes bibliographical references.
Will H. Moore, Professor Directing Dissertation; Victor Mesev, University Representative; Jason Barabas, Committee Member; Megan Shannon, Committee Member; Mark Souva, Committee Member.
Florida State University
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