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A framework to quantify uncertainty in simulations of oil transport in the ocean

Title: A framework to quantify uncertainty in simulations of oil transport in the ocean.
Name(s): Goncalves, Rafael C., author
Iskandarani, Mohamed, author
Srinivasan, Ashwanth, author
Thacker, W. Carlisle, author
Chassignet, Eric, author
Knio, Omar M., author
Type of Resource: text
Genre: Text
Date Issued: 2016-04
Physical Form: computer
online resource
Extent: 1 online resource
Language(s): English
Abstract/Description: An uncertainty quantification framework is developed for the DeepC Oil Model based on a nonintrusive polynomial chaos method. This allows the model's output to be presented in a probabilistic framework so that the model's predictions reflect the uncertainty in the model's input data. The new capability is illustrated by simulating the far-field dispersal of oil in a Deepwater Horizon blowout scenario. The uncertain input consisted of ocean current and oil droplet size data and the main model output analyzed is the ensuing oil concentration in the Gulf of Mexico. A 1331 member ensemble was used to construct a surrogate for the model which was then mined for statistical information. The mean and standard deviations in the oil concentration were calculated for up to 30 days, and the total contribution of each input parameter to the model's uncertainty was quantified at different depths. Also, probability density functions of oil concentration were constructed by sampling the surrogate and used to elaborate probabilistic hazard maps of oil impact. The performance of the surrogate was constantly monitored in order to demarcate the spacetime zones where its estimates are reliable.
Identifier: FSU_libsubv1_wos_000383462300002 (IID), 10.1002/2015JC011311 (DOI)
Keywords: deep-water, Dispersion, droplet breakup, gas blowouts, gulf-of-mexico, numerical-model, predictions, sea, subsea oil, water-horizon spill
Publication Note: The publisher’s version of record is available at
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Host Institution: FSU
Is Part Of: Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans.
Issue: iss. 4, vol. 121

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Goncalves, R. C., Iskandarani, M., Srinivasan, A., Thacker, W. C., Chassignet, E., & Knio, O. M. (2016). A framework to quantify uncertainty in simulations of oil transport in the ocean. Journal Of Geophysical Research-Oceans. Retrieved from