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A review of multimodel superensemble forecasting for weather, seasonal climate, and hurricanes

Title: A review of multimodel superensemble forecasting for weather, seasonal climate, and hurricanes.
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Name(s): Krishnamurti, T. N., author
Kumar, V., author
Simon, A., author
Bhardwaj, A., author
Ghosh, T., author
Ross, R., author
Type of Resource: text
Genre: Text
Date Issued: 2016-06
Physical Form: computer
online resource
Extent: 1 online resource
Language(s): English
Abstract/Description: This review provides a summary of work in the area of ensemble forecasts for weather, climate, oceans, and hurricanes. This includes a combination of multiple forecast model results that does not dwell on the ensemble mean but uses a unique collective bias reduction procedure. A theoretical framework for this procedure is provided, utilizing a suite of models that is constructed from the well-known Lorenz low-order nonlinear system. A tutorial that includes a walk-through table and illustrates the inner workings of the multimodel superensemble's principle is provided. Systematic errors in a single deterministic model arise from a host of features that range from the model's initial state (data assimilation), resolution, representation of physics, dynamics, and ocean processes, local aspects of orography, water bodies, and details of the land surface. Models, in their diversity of representation of such features, end up leaving unique signatures of systematic errors. The multimodel superensemble utilizes as many as 10 million weights to take into account the bias errors arising from these diverse features of multimodels. The design of a single deterministic forecast models that utilizes multiple features from the use of the large volume of weights is provided here. This has led to a better understanding of the error growths and the collective bias reductions for several of the physical parameterizations within diverse models, such as cumulus convection, planetary boundary layer physics, and radiative transfer. A number of examples for weather, seasonal climate, hurricanes and sub surface oceanic forecast skills of member models, the ensemble mean, and the superensemble are provided.
Identifier: FSU_libsubv1_wos_000385716900003 (IID), 10.1002/2015RG000513 (DOI)
Keywords: cumulus parameterization, dataset, ensemble prediction system, impact, model precipitation forecasts, monsoon, part i, range forecast, Simulation, single-model
Publication Note: The publisher’s version of record is available at http://www.dx.doi.org/10.1002/2015RG000513
Persistent Link to This Record: http://purl.flvc.org/fsu/fd/FSU_libsubv1_wos_000385716900003
Owner Institution: FSU
Is Part Of: Reviews of Geophysics.
8755-1209
Issue: iss. 2, vol. 54

Choose the citation style.
Krishnamurti, T. N., Kumar, V., Simon, A., Bhardwaj, A., Ghosh, T., & Ross, R. (2016). A review of multimodel superensemble forecasting for weather, seasonal climate, and hurricanes. Reviews Of Geophysics. Retrieved from http://purl.flvc.org/fsu/fd/FSU_libsubv1_wos_000385716900003