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An Assessment of Multimodel Simulations for the Variability of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones and Its Association with ENSO

Title: An Assessment of Multimodel Simulations for the Variability of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones and Its Association with ENSO.
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Name(s): Han, Rongqing, author
Wang, Hui, author
Hu, Zeng-Zhen, author
Kumar, Arun, author
Li, Weijing, author
Long, Lindsey N., author
Schemm, Jae-Kyung E., author
Peng, Peitao, author
Wang, Wanqiu, author
Si, Dong, author
Jia, Xiaolong, author
Zhao, Ming, author
Vecchi, Gabriel A., author
Larow, Timothy E., author
Lim, Young-Kwon, author
Schubert, Siegfried D., author
Camargo, Suzana J., author
Henderson, Naomi, author
Jonas, Jeffrey A., author
Walsh, Kevin J. E., author
Type of Resource: text
Genre: Text
Date Issued: 2016-09-15
Physical Form: computer
online resource
Extent: 1 online resource
Language(s): English
Abstract/Description: An assessment of simulations of the interannual variability of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) and its association with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as well as a subsequent diagnosis for possible causes of model biases generated from simulated large-scale climate conditions, are documented in the paper. The model experiments are carried out by the Hurricane Work Group under the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Research Program (CLIVAR) using five global climate models (GCMs) with a total of 16 ensemble members forced by the observed sea surface temperature and spanning the 28-yr period from 1982 to 2009. The results show GISS and GFDL model ensemble means best simulate the interannual variability of TCs, and the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) follows. Also, the MME has the closest climate mean annual number of WNP TCs and the smallest root-mean-square error to the observation. Most GCMs can simulate the interannual variability of WNP TCs well, with stronger TC activities during two types of El Nino-namely, eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Nino-and weaker activity during La Nina. However, none of the models capture the differences in TC activity between EP and CP El Nino as are shown in observations. The inability of models to distinguish the differences in TC activities between the two types of El Nino events may be due to the bias of the models in response to the shift of tropical heating associated with CP El Nino.
Identifier: FSU_libsubv1_wos_000383828300001 (IID), 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0720.1 (DOI)
Keywords: climate-change, el-nino, events, general-circulation models, high-resolution, interannual variability, precipitation, seasonal predictions, temperature, typhoon tracks
Publication Note: The publisher’s version of record is available at http://www.dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0720.1
Persistent Link to This Record: http://purl.flvc.org/fsu/fd/FSU_libsubv1_wos_000383828300001
Owner Institution: FSU
Is Part Of: Journal of Climate.
0894-8755
Issue: iss. 18, vol. 29

Choose the citation style.
Han, R., Wang, H., Hu, Z. -Z., Kumar, A., Li, W., Long, L. N., … Walsh, K. J. E. (2016). An Assessment of Multimodel Simulations for the Variability of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones and Its Association with ENSO. Journal Of Climate. Retrieved from http://purl.flvc.org/fsu/fd/FSU_libsubv1_wos_000383828300001