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Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire

Title: Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment.
Name(s): Abbott, Benjamin W., author
Jones, Jeremy B., author
Schuur, Edward A. G., author
Chapin, F. Stuart, author
Bowden, William B., author
Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia, author
Epstein, Howard E., author
Flannigan, Michael D., author
Harms, Tamara K., author
Hollingsworth, Teresa N., author
Mack, Michelle C., author
McGuire, A. David, author
Natali, Susan M., author
Rocha, Adrian V., author
Tank, Suzanne E., author
Turetsky, Merritt R., author
Vonk, Jorien E., author
Wickland, Kimberly P., author
Aiken, George R., author
Alexander, Heather D., author
Amon, Rainer M. W., author
Benscoter, Brian W., author
Bergeron, Yves, author
Bishop, Kevin, author
Blarquez, Olivier, author
Bond-Lamberty, Ben, author
Breen, Amy L., author
Buffam, Ishi, author
Cai, Yihua, author
Carcaillet, Christopher, author
Carey, Sean K., author
Chen, Jing M., author
Chen, Han Y. H., author
Christensen, Torben R., author
Cooper, Lee W., author
Cornelissen, J. Hans C., author
de Groot, William J., author
DeLuca, Thomas H., author
Dorrepaal, Ellen, author
Fetcher, Ned, author
Finlay, Jacques C., author
Forbes, Bruce C., author
French, Nancy H. F., author
Gauthier, Sylvie, author
Girardin, Martin P., author
Goetz, Scott J., author
Goldammer, Johann G., author
Gough, Laura, author
Grogan, Paul, author
Guo, Laodong, author
Higuera, Philip E., author
Hinzman, Larry, author
Hu, Feng Sheng, author
Hugelius, Gustaf, author
Jafarov, Elchin E., author
Jandt, Randi, author
Johnstone, Jill F., author
Karlsson, Jan, author
Kasischke, Eric S., author
Kattner, Gerhard, author
Kelly, Ryan, author
Keuper, Frida, author
Kling, George W., author
Kortelainen, Pirkko, author
Kouki, Jari, author
Kuhry, Peter, author
Laudon, Hjalmar, author
Laurion, Isabelle, author
Macdonald, Robie W., author
Mann, Paul J., author
Martikainen, Pertti J., author
McClelland, James W., author
Molau, Ulf, author
Oberbauer, Steven F., author
Olefeldt, David, author
Pare, David, author
Parisien, Marc-Andre, author
Payette, Serge, author
Peng, Changhui, author
Pokrovsky, Oleg S., author
Rastetter, Edward B., author
Raymond, Peter A., author
Raynolds, Martha K., author
Rein, Guillermo, author
Reynolds, James F., author
Robards, Martin, author
Rogers, Brendan M., author
Schaedel, Christina, author
Schaefer, Kevin, author
Schmidt, Inger K., author
Shvidenko, Anatoly, author
Sky, Jasper, author
Spencer, Robert G. M., author
Starr, Gregory, author
Striegl, Robert G., author
Teisserenc, Roman, author
Tranvik, Lars J., author
Virtanen, Tarmo, author
Welker, Jeffrey M., author
Zimov, Sergei, author
Type of Resource: text
Genre: Text
Date Issued: 2016-03
Physical Form: computer
online resource
Extent: 1 online resource
Language(s): English
Abstract/Description: As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
Identifier: FSU_libsubv1_wos_000373401400017 (IID), 10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 (DOI)
Keywords: Arctic, arctic tundra, boreal, boreal forest, climate-change, coastal erosion, dissolved organic carbon, ecosystems, fire, interior alaska, nitrogen deposition, particulate organic carbon, permafrost carbon, sequestration, storage, vulnerability, wildfire
Publication Note: The publisher’s version of record is available at
Persistent Link to This Record:
Host Institution: FSU
Is Part Of: Environmental Research Letters.
Issue: iss. 3, vol. 11

Choose the citation style.
Abbott, B. W., Jones, J. B., Schuur, E. A. G., Chapin, F. S., Bowden, W. B., Bret-Harte, M. S., … Zimov, S. (2016). Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment. Environmental Research Letters. Retrieved from