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Determinants of Chicago Neighborhood Homicide Trajectories

Title: Determinants of Chicago Neighborhood Homicide Trajectories: 1965-1995.
Name(s): Stults, Brian, author
Type of Resource: text
Genre: Text
Issuance: serial
Date Issued: 2010
Physical Form: computer
online resource
Extent: 1 online resource
Language(s): English
Abstract/Description: The homicide rate in Chicago nearly tripled between 1965 and 1992, and subsequently declined by more than 50% through 2005. But is this trend representative of all areas in the city? Drawing on the social disorganization and concentrated disadvantage perspectives, this paper uses semi-parametric group-based trajectory modeling to examine homicide trajectories in Chicago neighborhoods from 1965-1995. Significant variability is found in homicide trajectories across neighborhoods. Multivariate results show that disadvantage increases the likelihood of having an increasing or persistently high homicide trajectory. Social disorganization and family disruption are also predictive of variation in homicide trajectories, but only in communities with already low levels of homicide. Other theoretically relevant predictors are evaluated, and suggestions for theoretical refinement and future research are discussed.
Identifier: FSU_migr_crim_faculty_publications-0001 (IID), 10.1177/1088767910371173 (IID)
Keywords: trajectory modeling, homicide trajectories, Chicago neighborhoods, homicide rates, prediction of criminal behavior
Note: This version of the article is the author's post-print. The published version appears in Homicide Studies, the copyright of which is owned by Sage Publications, Inc.
Citation: Stults, Brian J. 2010. Determinants of Chicago Neighborhood Homicide Trajectories: 1965-1995. Homicide Studies, 14 (3): 244-267. doi: 10.1177/1088767910371173
Subject(s): Criminology
Study and teaching
Deviant behavior
Social control
Persistent Link to This Record:
Host Institution: FSU
Is Part of Series: Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice Faculty Publications.
Is Part Of: Homicide Studies.
Issue: 3, 14

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Stults, B. (2010). Determinants of Chicago Neighborhood Homicide Trajectories: 1965-1995. Homicide Studies. Retrieved from