You are here

Rainfall Anomaly Prediction Using Statistical Downscaling in a Multimodel Superensemble over Tropical South America

Title: Rainfall Anomaly Prediction Using Statistical Downscaling in a Multimodel Superensemble over Tropical South America.
46 views
11 downloads
Name(s): Johnson, Bradford D., author
Ruscher, Paul, professor directing dissertation
Liu, Guosheng, committee member
Misra, Vasu, committee member
Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, degree granting department
Florida State University, degree granting institution
Type of Resource: text
Genre: Text
Issuance: monographic
Date Issued: 2012
Publisher: Florida State University
Place of Publication: Tallahassee, Florida
Physical Form: computer
online resource
Extent: 1 online resource
Language(s): English
Abstract/Description: Accurate forecasting of seasonal rainfall is important for many areas of commerce, including, but not limited to, agriculture, manufacturing, and power generation. There have been several studies addressing the predictability of rainfall variations over South America and the Amazon basin. The use of coupled atmospheric-ocean numerical models to predict these anomalies has had mixed results. A primary factor leading to model inaccuracy in precipitation forecasts is the coarse resolution data utilized by coupled models during the initialization phase. By using MERRA reanalysis and statistical downscaling along with the superensemble methodology, it is possible to obtain more precise forecasts of rainfall anomalies over tropical South America during austral fall. Selective inclusion (and exclusion) of superensemble member models also allows for increased accuracy. Improvement in individual member models is also possible on smaller spatial scales and in regions where substantial topographical changes were not handled well under original model initial conditions. The combination of downscaling and superensemble methodologies with other research methods presents the potential opportunity for increased accuracy not only in seasonal forecasts but on shorter temporal scales as well.
Identifier: FSU_migr_etd-4932 (IID)
Submitted Note: A Thesis submitted to the Department of Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric Science in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science.
Degree Awarded: Summer Semester, 2012.
Date of Defense: June 15, 2012.
Keywords: Amazon, downscaling, monsoon, precipitation, South America, superensemble
Bibliography Note: Includes bibliographical references.
Advisory Committee: Paul Ruscher, Professor Directing Dissertation; Guosheng Liu, Committee Member; Vasu Misra, Committee Member.
Subject(s): Earth sciences
Oceanography
Atmospheric sciences
Geophysics
Persistent Link to This Record: http://purl.flvc.org/fsu/fd/FSU_migr_etd-4932
Owner Institution: FSU

Choose the citation style.
Johnson, B. D. (2012). Rainfall Anomaly Prediction Using Statistical Downscaling in a Multimodel Superensemble over Tropical South America. Retrieved from http://purl.flvc.org/fsu/fd/FSU_migr_etd-4932