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Adaptive Mechanisms of Superior Judgment under Uncertainty

Title: Adaptive Mechanisms of Superior Judgment under Uncertainty: Rational Choices from Simple Heuristics and Elaborative Strategies.
Name(s): Cokely, Edward T. (Edward Tucker), author
Kelley, Colleen M., professor directing dissertation
Bourgeois, Michelle, outside committee member
Ericsson, K. Anders, committee member
Charness, Neil, committee member
Ehrlinger, Joyce, committee member
Department of Psychology, degree granting department
Florida State University, degree granting institution
Type of Resource: text
Genre: Text
Issuance: monographic
Date Issued: 2007
Publisher: Florida State University
Florida State University
Place of Publication: Tallahassee, Florida
Physical Form: computer
online resource
Extent: 1 online resource
Language(s): English
Abstract/Description: Several studies demonstrate a consistent, positive relationship between cognitive ability measures and normatively superior judgment and decision behavior. However, little is known about the cognitive processes and mechanisms that give rise to these individual differences or more generally produce rational judgments under uncertainty. In a series of two experiments, protocol analysis and individual difference measures were used to demonstrate that, in contrast to the processes predicted by a rational theory (i.e. expected value calculations), rational choices often arise from combinations of simple considerations. These processes are similar to those predicted by the priority heuristic, although the priority heuristic generally predicted choices poorly, at or below chance levels. Critically, individual differences in elaborative adaptive strategies (e.g. more and more varied combinations of simple considerations) were strongly positively related to rational choices and fully mediated the cognitive ability and rational choice relationship. Implications for descriptive and process level models of choice are discussed.
Identifier: FSU_migr_etd-3569 (IID)
Submitted Note: A Dissertation submitted to the Department of Psychology in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy.
Degree Awarded: Summer Semester, 2007.
Date of Defense: June 28, 2007.
Keywords: Judgment Under Uncertainty, Individual Differences, Decision Making, Cognitive Abilities
Bibliography Note: Includes bibliographical references.
Advisory Committee: Colleen M. Kelley, Professor Directing Dissertation; Michelle Bourgeois, Outside Committee Member; K. Anders Ericsson, Committee Member; Neil Charness, Committee Member; Joyce Ehrlinger, Committee Member.
Subject(s): Psychology
Persistent Link to This Record:
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Host Institution: FSU

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Cokely, E. T. (E. T. ). (2007). Adaptive Mechanisms of Superior Judgment under Uncertainty: Rational Choices from Simple Heuristics and Elaborative Strategies. Retrieved from