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Actuarial Prediction of Institutional Maladjustment and Recidivism in Severe Male Juvenile Offenders

Title: Actuarial Prediction of Institutional Maladjustment and Recidivism in Severe Male Juvenile Offenders.
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Name(s): Butler, Melanie A. (Melanie Alexis), 1977-, author
Loney, Bryan, professor directing dissertation
Blomberg, Thomas, outside committee member
Kistner, Janet, committee member
Taylor, Jeanette, committee member
Schatschneider, Chris, committee member
Department of Psychology, degree granting department
Florida State University, degree granting institution
Type of Resource: text
Genre: Text
Issuance: monographic
Date Issued: 2008
Publisher: Florida State University
Place of Publication: Tallahassee, Florida
Physical Form: computer
online resource
Extent: 1 online resource
Language(s): English
Abstract/Description: The current study examined the contribution of multiple well-established risk variables to the prediction of institutional maladjustment and recidivism. The incremental validity of individual risk variables was assessed and actuarial models were developed with the intent of maximizing risk prediction. A total sample of 489 severe male juvenile offenders was divided into separate derivation and validation sub-samples for the development of actuarial models. In partial support of study hypotheses, regression analyses revealed that multiple criminal history variables (e.g., age of first adjudication, prior commitments) uniquely contributed to the prediction of institutional maladjustment and recidivism. The actuarial models performed similarly across derivation and validation samples. However, with the exception of institutional maladjustment, the actuarial models exhibited low prediction accuracy (e.g., AUC = .59 - .64). Cut-scores derived for the models were particularly prone to false positives. Implications of the current findings for juvenile risk assessment and future actuarial modeling efforts are discussed.
Identifier: FSU_migr_etd-2416 (IID)
Submitted Note: A Dissertation Submitted to the Department of Psychology in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy.
Degree Awarded: Summer Semester, 2008.
Date of Defense: May 6, 2008.
Keywords: Recidivism, Psychopathic Traits, Institutional Maladjustment, Juvenile Offenders
Bibliography Note: Includes bibliographical references.
Advisory Committee: Bryan Loney, Professor Directing Dissertation; Thomas Blomberg, Outside Committee Member; Janet Kistner, Committee Member; Jeanette Taylor, Committee Member; Chris Schatschneider, Committee Member.
Subject(s): Psychology
Persistent Link to This Record: http://purl.flvc.org/fsu/fd/FSU_migr_etd-2416
Owner Institution: FSU

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Butler, M. A. (M. A. ). (2008). Actuarial Prediction of Institutional Maladjustment and Recidivism in Severe Male Juvenile Offenders. Retrieved from http://purl.flvc.org/fsu/fd/FSU_migr_etd-2416